Comparing No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams to last three drafted USC QBs (2024)

The Chicago Bears surprised nobody when they selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the No. 1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner followed up that historic season with a 2023 campaign that once more placed him among the elite quarterbacks in the sport. It was a historic moment for the program. Williams' No. 1 overall selection gave USC the record for most players (six) selected as the top pick of the NFL draft. Williams joined Ron Yary (1968), O.J. Simpson (1969), Ricky Bell (1977), Keyshawn Johnson (1996) and Carson Palmer (2003) as No. 1 overall picks to come out of Troy.

It was a historic moment for Lincoln Riley as well. In addition to being the only head coach to tutor three Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, Riley grabbed the record for most quarterbacks coached who have been selected at No. 1 all-time (Baker Mayfield in 2018, Kyler Murray in 2019 and Williams in 2024). In seven years as a head coach, Riley is now also tied for the most No. 1 overall draft selections coached at any position with Georgia's Wally Butts (Frank Sinkwich in 1943, Charley Trippi in 1945 and Harry Babco*ck in 1953) ,who coached the Bulldogs from 1939 to 1960.

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Williams had a record-breaking career while at USC. He left Troy with the USC single-season record for total offense (4,919 yards), most touchdowns scored rushing and passing (52), passing completions (333), passes attempted (500), most passing yards gained (4,537), most touchdown passes thrown (42), most rushing and passing plays (613), lowest rate of interceptions (one percent, 5 in 500 attempts) and highest passing efficiency rating (168.5).

Williams is tied for the USC single-season record for most consecutive five-touchdown pass games with two (tied with Sam Darnold in 2016 and Kedon Slovis in 2020). He holds the USC single-game record for most yards running and passing (503 vs. UCLA in 2022). His 382 rushing yards in 2022 were the most by a Trojan quarterback in the last 70 years when complete records were first available. He leaves USC fifth on the Trojans' career total offense leaderboard (8,688 yards) and eighth on career passing (599 completions) after playing just two seasons.

Williams is the seventh Trojan quarterback drafted since 2000, including five in the top two rounds. Let's take a look at how he compares to the three most recent USC quarterbacks to be drafted into the NFL.

2018Sam Darnold

Darnold was selected by the New York Jets in the first round (third overall) of the 2018 NFL Draft. He begins 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings after stints with the Jets (2018-20), Carolina Panthers (2021-22) and San Francisco 49ers (2023). He was USC's highest NFL pick since Reggie Bush went No. 2 in 2006 and the highest drafted USC quarterback since Carson Palmer was No. 1 in 2003.

Let's compare Darnold's final season at USC with Williams' two seasons with the Trojans.

Tangentially, the fact Williams was a notch better in the first two categories last season was interesting. That reality almost certainly cemented Williams as the top pick because he largely maintained his standard of play even though USC did not enjoy as successful a season. On that front, Darnold clearly gets the upper hand. His final USC team went 11-3 and lost in the Cotton Bowl after beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship. USC essentially repeated that season in 2022 minus the league title. The fun thought experiment is this: If the players switched teams, which season would have been significantly changed?

At the end of the day, Williams' last two seasons each outdid Darnold's final campaign for Troy.

2016 Cody Kessler

The Ole' Bakersfield Bandit went in the third round as the No. 93 overall pick to the Cleveland Browns. Kessler was a three-year starter at USC who threw for 10,339 yards and 88 touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions. Kessler's NFL.com draft profile aligned with his draft status.

"Physically, there's nothing special about Kessler; he possesses average size, an adequate arm, and fair athleticism (though he can effectively move within the pocket, which is important). The three-year starter could never crack Pac-12 first- or second-team all-conference from league coaches, thrice finishing in the honorable mention category. However, Kessler was a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award the past two years because he moves the offense efficiently (3,826 yards, completed 69.7 percent of his passes; 3,536, 66.8 percent in 2015) and doesn't turn the ball over much (39 touchdowns, five interceptions in 2014; 29 TD, 7 INT in 2015). In fact, Kessler owns the school record for career completion percentage at 67.5."

Contrast that with Williams' player draft bio:

"Williams' play is highlighted by rare escapability paired with the talent to exploit defenses once the play breaks down. He's not tall, but he is well-built, with an arm to challenge defenses across the field. He can be a high-impact playmaker on the go or an effective pocket passer when he allows himself to trust his eyes on second and third reads. He can improve his accuracy and placement on intermediate and deep throws, but he's unlikely to be known for pinpoint accuracy. It is admirable that he looks to keep his eyes up and make throws outside the pocket, but he'll make things easier on himself early in his pro career by becoming a more decisive scrambler to move the sticks and carry on to the next set of downs. Williams is tremendously talented but often bites off too much responsibility and plays off-schedule. He has a good chance to hit new heights with a surrounding cast he trusts, but greater self-discipline and a well-structured offense might be needed to help him become a quarterback who can elevate a franchise to championship contention."

Here are how the two players compare statistically:

Kessler hung his hat on accuracy, yet Williams actually surpassed him in completion percentage by a click in 2023. Clearly, the gap in athleticism showed up in the running totals for both quarterbacks. Kessler did well to maximize his potential at USC. As collegians, there's not much of a debate here.

2013 Matt Barkley

Barkley went to the Philadelphia Eagles in the fourth round with the No. 98 overall pick. Fun random notes: Barkley's center, Khaled Holmes, was drafted in the same round 23 picks later. The Eagles' coach at the time? That would beChip Kelly, who traded up to get Barkley with the first pick of the fourth round.

Barkley and Darnold were comparable players in terms of yards per attempt, but neither could match Williams in that category. Sacks are counted as lost rushing yards by the quarterback in college football. That clearly impacted Barkley and Kessler's totals as well as Williams' yards per carry number. Yet they also illustrate the point about No. 13's exceptional athleticism. USC opponents sacked Williams 33 times in 2023, but he still managed to finish in the plus category in rushing.

It's hardly a headline to say Williams projects as a better pro than his three most recently drafted USC quarterback predecessors. Aside from Darnold, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert were the other Trojan quarterbacks to hear their names called in the first two rounds since 2000. Those are comparisons for another day. Williams heads to Chicago with a legitimate shot to be USC's best NFL quarterback this century as well as the best of Lincoln Riley's head coaching career as well.