National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
123pm EDT Fri May 24 2024
Synopsis
A cold front across the central Delmarva and Cape May New Jersey early this afternoon will drift southward and stall just to our south late this afternoon. It will lift back north tonight as a warm front. Another stronger system will impact the area on Monday into Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Saturday
Convection across southern Delaware and nearby Maryland continues this afternoon in response to a mid- level shortwave moving eastward across the Delmarva. Most convection should end or move south of the area by 19Z.
Otherwise, surface high pressure over the Great Lakes gradually builds in from the north and west, bringing in a drier airmass through this afternoon. Tranquil weather will continue tonight with clear skies and light winds initially. We should be able to radiate pretty well leading to some patchy fog development over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. However, clouds will increase from south to north later in the night as a stalled front toour south begins to lift back north across the area. This should limit the amount of cooling late, so expecting lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s with mid 60s around Philadelphia.
Other than patchy morning fog over the Delamrva, Saturday morning should be fairly tranquil. A warm front will push north of the area with the main forcing for some afternoon showers occuring late in the day over the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. The showers will progress eastward to the Delaware Valley by Saturday evening. Temperatures are anticipated to rise into the mid 80s with low 70s along the shore.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Sunday Night
Brief high pressure develops Sunday with the front stalled to the north of the region and it should be another pleasant day across the region with sunny skies and fair weather CU developing. Highs Sunday should also push into the mid 80s with 70s along the shore. Expect lows each night to fall into the 50s to low 60s.
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
The work week begins with a more unsettled pattern. Starting Monday an upper level system will push a cold front through the region. With warm air advection initially and strong PVA, there will be ample lift associated with the system tapping into a surge of PWAT (Precipitable Water) from both the Gulf and the Carolinas. This leads to widespread convection across the region and EL's should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. While CIPS guidance has started to trend slightly down on the severe threat yesterday, the 00z GEFS showed a significant increase back to a 10-15% chance of severe weather on Monday. Bulk shear vectors point towards 35-40kts with mid level lapse rates in the 6 degC/km. This should provide enough forcing for some stronger storms to become severe. WPC upgraded the Marginal from yesterday to a Slight risk for portions of the I95 corridor and PA. Given that SPORT LIS Soil Moisture data show dry conditions in the 10-40cm depth range, anticipate that any flooding will most likely be over the impervious surfaces of the more urban area rather than over more rural areas. Given the increasing confidence in at least heavy rain, the forecast was updated to include specific mention of heavy rainfall for any locations where the precipitation chances were higher than 55%.
After the cold front passes, unsettled weather continues to be the theme thanks to several waves/impulses aloft passing through the week. Temps for the work week should be fairly seasonable with highs in the 70s through Wednesday, before falling back into the 60s by Thursday.
Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Delaware coastal waters this afternoon. Light and variable winds becoming SSW around 5-10 kts. Seas around 2 feet.
Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday
No marine headlines expected. Winds will occasionally gust up to 15-20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. Marine fog is possible Saturday morning off the Delaware coastline and over Delaware Bay. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Monday into Tuesday.
Rip Currents... For today, winds will once again be out of the S to SW at 5 to 10 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ and DE beaches. Although there is a slight chance for showers, thunderstorms are not expected.
The LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue for Saturday.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Marine
None.
